The Golden State Warriors welcome the Utah Jazz to Chase Center on Monday, November 24, 2025, in a matchup that feels more like a survival test than a showcase. Both teams enter on three-game losing streaks, and while the Warriors are 13.5-point favorites, the numbers tell a story far more complicated than the point spread suggests. With a 9-9 record, Golden State hasn’t looked like a playoff lock. The Jazz, at 5-11, are rebuilding—but they’re not out of fight. And here’s the twist: despite being at home, the Warriors might be the more vulnerable team.
Home Court Advantage? Not So Fast
The Golden State Warriors have a 4-1-1 record against the spread at home this season, according to FOX Sports’ November 24 analysis. That sounds solid—until you realize they’re just 4-8-0 on the road. Their home dominance is real, but it’s also fragile. They’ve covered the spread in only half of their home games when the over/under was set above 230 points. And here’s the kicker: in their last 10 games, the Warriors and their opponents have averaged just 229.3 total points—10.2 points below Monday’s 239.5 over/under. That’s not a fluke. It’s a pattern.Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz are 5-4 against the spread on the road. That’s not elite, but it’s better than their win-loss record implies. They’ve been competitive in close games, and their pace, even on the road, often pushes opponents into uncomfortable defensive sets. The Leans.ai AI model mistakenly claimed this game was in Utah, but even that error highlights a truth: people expect the Jazz to play differently at home. They don’t. They play with grit, regardless of venue.
The Betting Market Is Split
The moneyline says it all: Warriors -909, Jazz +600. That means you’d need to bet $909 to win $100 on Golden State. It’s a sign of how little faith oddsmakers have in Utah’s chances. But here’s what’s odd: the same market that makes the Warriors such heavy favorites also has FOX Sports recommending the Jazz +13.5 and the Under 239.5. Their predicted score? Warriors 123, Jazz 114. That’s a 9-point win—well under the spread.Why? Because the Warriors’ offense has sputtered. Stephen Curry is healthy, but the supporting cast hasn’t clicked. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody are inconsistent. The defense? Patchy. And the Jazz? They’ve held opponents under 120 points in three of their last five road games. This isn’t a blowout waiting to happen. It’s a grind.
Even FanDuel’s player props reflect the tension. A player needs to score 20+ points at -144 odds, but 25+ points? That’s +920. That’s not a star performance—it’s an outlier. And in a game where both teams are struggling to find rhythm, that’s exactly what it’ll take to hit.
Why the Under Is the Play
The total is set at 239.5. That’s high for two teams averaging 229.3 points over their last 10 games. And the Warriors? They’ve gone under the total in 50% of their home games. The Jazz? They’ve gone under in 60% of their road games. That’s not coincidence. It’s style.Golden State’s half-court offense, once a symphony, is now a series of isolation sets. Utah’s lack of perimeter shooting means they can’t stretch the floor. Both teams are relying on defense—and neither is great at it. The result? Sluggish possessions, contested shots, and low-efficiency scoring. If you’re betting this game, the under isn’t just a safe pick—it’s the only one that aligns with the data.
What’s Really at Stake?
This isn’t about playoff seeding. Both teams are outside the Western Conference picture. But momentum matters. The Warriors need to stop the bleeding before Christmas. The Jazz need to prove they’re not just a draft lottery team. A win for Utah, even as a 13.5-point underdog, could shift their entire season narrative. For Golden State, another loss could spark internal questions about their identity.And let’s not forget the human factor. Draymond Green, now in his 12th season, has been vocal about the team’s lack of focus. Jordan Poole is trying to reestablish himself. On the Jazz side, Lauri Markkanen is carrying the offensive load, but his teammates aren’t stepping up. This game could be the moment either team finds their spark—or confirms their decline.
What’s Next?
After this game, the Warriors host the Lakers on November 27. The Jazz travel to Portland on November 26. If Golden State loses again, the pressure on head coach Steve Kerr will intensify. If Utah wins, they’ll enter the holiday stretch with belief. And if the under hits? That’s the story no one’s talking about—but it’s the one the numbers are screaming.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Warriors’ home record misleading despite their ATS success?
While the Warriors are 4-1-1 against the spread at home, their actual win rate is only 50% in those games. They’ve won close contests by narrow margins, often relying on late-game execution rather than dominance. Their offense has been inconsistent, and their defense ranks 20th in the league. The ATS success comes from covering in low-scoring, tight games—not from outclassing opponents.
Is the Jazz +13.5 a good bet despite their losing streak?
Yes. Utah has covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 road games and lost by more than 13.5 points in just one of their last 10 away contests. The Warriors’ offense has been sluggish at home, averaging just 112.4 points per game in their last five. The Jazz’s defensive structure and pace can keep this within 10 points, making +13.5 a strong value play.
Why is the over/under set so high if both teams score so little?
The 239.5 total reflects the market’s overreaction to Golden State’s offensive reputation and Utah’s occasional high-scoring games. But the reality? Both teams have played slow, low-efficiency basketball lately. Their last 10 combined games averaged 229.3 points—10.2 below the total. With poor shooting and limited transition play, the under is statistically and stylistically supported.
How does the Warriors’ moneyline of -909 affect betting strategy?
The -909 moneyline makes a straight Warriors win a poor value bet. You’d need to risk nearly $1,000 to win $100. The risk-reward ratio is terrible. Smart bettors avoid it entirely and instead target the spread or total. The real value lies in the Jazz +13.5 or the under 239.5—both of which have stronger statistical backing than a Warriors win outright.
Could this game expose weaknesses in the Warriors’ championship core?
Absolutely. If Golden State loses to a 5-11 team at home, especially after leading late, it raises questions about their mental toughness. Curry and Green are veterans, but the bench lacks depth. Kuminga and Moody haven’t stepped up. A loss here wouldn’t be a fluke—it would signal a deeper issue: this team may no longer have the resilience to win close games without perfect execution.
What’s the most likely final score based on trends?
Based on recent scoring trends, the most plausible outcome is Warriors 121, Jazz 112. That’s within the predicted range of FOX Sports and aligns with both teams’ last 10-game averages. It’s a low-scoring, defensive battle where Golden State edges it out by a margin smaller than the spread—exactly the kind of game that makes the under and the underdog play valuable.